EthanSears.com

Week 16 Preview: Throwing cold water on the Giants' optimism

The New York Giants have lost just one of their past nine games. They’re almost guaranteed to finish in the top wild card spot in the NFC and travel to Atlanta, Detroit or Green Bay in the first round—all winnable games. If they do win in the wild card round, they likely play Dallas in the divisional round—a team they’ve beaten twice this year. Therefore, it isn’t too far-fetched to say that the Giants may be in the NFC title game, which means it isn’t too far-fetched to say they reach, or even win, the Super Bowl.

Indeed, that line of thinking has been taken by many this week—often paired with the idea of a Super Bowl XLII/XLIV rematch against the Patriots, a dream for FOX executives. Despite the relative feasibility of it, I—a Giants fan—don’t see it happening. I don’t see them beating Dallas in the second round either—even beating Atlanta or Green Bay in the first round seems like a stretch[1]. The reason is simple: the New York Giants are not that good a football team.

Let’s look at DVOA. The Giants are 11^th in both the regular and weighted versions of the category, 21^st in offense, third in defense and 17^th in special teams. That may seem low, but take a deeper dive into the numbers and it looks high. New York has just 8.4 estimated wins according to Football Outsiders—a number they’ve outperformed by nearly two full games—because they’ve been extremely lucky in close games. Back in Week 1, Terrance Williams failed to run out of bounds, ending the game and handing New York a 1-point victory. In Week 2, it took a game-ending field goal after a rare drive down the field to eke out a 3-point victory against New Orleans and in Week 6; it took a 66-yard catch-and-run from Odell Beckham and a defensive stand to win against the Ravens. I could go on, but it would get tedious (if it isn’t already). The point is that the Giants have won just two games this season by more than one score: last week against Detroit and Week 12 against the (winless) Browns.

If those 8.4 estimated wins suddenly seem high now, it’s worth noting that Pro Football Reference’s Expected Win-Loss metric pegs the Giants at 7.7-6.3, which, rounded up, would tie them with playoff hopefuls like Green Bay and Baltimore.

Furthermore, their offensive weakness is glaring. It’s easy to look at Eli Manning’s struggles and shrug them off given how well the defense is playing, but to contend for a Super Bowl with a bad offense, you need a historically good defense. For context, the Broncos were 25^th in offensive DVOA last season but led the league with a -25.8 percent defensive DVOA. This year, the Giants are 21^st in offensive DVOA, but rank third with a -14.3 percent defensive DVOA—that’s over 10 percent lower than last year’s Broncos, a team that still needed an extraordinary amount of luck to even advance to the Super Bowl.

Having a good offense matters—a lot—and the Giants don’t, in any way, shape or form. Despite indisputable talent around him, Eli Manning has been consistently terrible, ranking 19^th in DYAR, 20^th in DVOA and 26^th in QBR with a 50.6 PFF grade to boot. More often than not, the team has relied on the occasional big play from Odell Beckham, like the 8-yard slant he took to the house against the Cowboys, for points—a strategy that is sure to fail eventually. They haven’t been able to run the ball either—as a team, the Giants average a horrific 3.4 yards per carry, good for 30^th in the league. It’s possible to win with defense, but the offense has to contribute somehow and this offense hasn’t. Over their last four wins—against the Bears, Browns, Cowboys and Lions, who rank 18^th, 32^nd, 20^th and 31^st in defensive DVOA—the Giants have scored 19 points on average. Last year, the Broncos averaged 22.1875 per game with a significantly better defense to compensate.

Take all of this into account—along with factors like Ben McAdoo’s suspect game management—and it’s hard to be optimistic about the Giants. Even after a great regular season, the fact of the matter is that they will probably crash out in the first round.

Week 16 Picks

Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Giants -2.5 over EAGLES: I don’t like the idea of Carson Wentz on a short week against one of the best defenses in football. Philly’s offensive line is capable, but the Ravens decimated them last week and I don’t love the Eagles’ chances against the Olivier Vernon-led Giants pass rush. Given Philly’s lack of skill position players, this is also the perfect game for Janoris Jenkins to miss. This still could be close—it’s Thursday night and the Giants’ offense hasn’t exactly been inspiring—but if the Giants are really contenders, this is a win and a cover.

BEARS +3.5 over Redskins: Don’t look now, but Matt Barkley has an 82.6 PFF grade this year. Throw in Jordan Howard’s incredible running ability and Washington’s defense—26^th in weighted DVOA—and the Bears, um, might be able to move the ball at home. I’m still worried about the Redskins if they make the playoffs because their offense is dynamic enough to win them games, but getting there won’t be easy—especially after came out flat on Monday night against a beaten down Panthers squad.

BILLS -3.5 over Dolphins: Tyrod Taylor hasn’t been great this year, but calls to get rid of him are unwarranted at best. He has a respectable 105 DYAR, ranks 12^th in QBR and 13^th in PFF grading among QBs. It’s not like he’s lighting the world on fire, but the guy is capable—especially when you throw in the fact that, for most of the year, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin were his best two receivers. If the Bills make him available, the Jets, 49ers, Browns, Jaguars, Broncos, Texans and Cardinals should all jump at the chance to have him.

Falcons -2.5 over PANTHERS: The Falcons are fourth in regular and weighted DVOA and first in offensive DVOA. Defense is an issue, but Vic Beasley has turned into an impact pass rusher and Deion Jones has a good Defensive Rookie of the Year case. Nearly all of their losses have been in close games as well—nobody’s blown them out and they’ll probably regress.  In other words, this team is a Super Bowl contender and shouldn’t have trouble beating a Panthers team that’s out of it.

Vikings +6.5 over PACKERS: I buy Green Bay’s offensive resurgence, but not their defensive resurgence. In the last four weeks, they’ve played Brock Osweiler, Carson Wentz, Matt Barkley and Russell Wilson. Wilson is the only one of those four with any sort of pedigree and he had his worst game of the year against Green Bay. It’s easy to dismiss Sam Bradford, but pointing to him as the cause of Minnesota’s struggles is flat-out wrong. If their offensive line holds up—far from a guarantee—they will move the ball. That should at least earn them a cover.

PATRIOTS -16.5 over Jets: Instead of firing Todd Bowles, maybe the Jets should look at getting rid of Mike Maccagnan, the general manager. The biggest moves he’s made are bringing in Buster Skrine (an unmitigated disaster), Darrelle Revis (one of the worst contracts in football), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Ryan Fitzpatrick), Antonio Cromartie (yikes), and Matt Forte (played well this year but is 31 with two years left on his contract). He also exercised Sheldon Richardson’s option for 2017, ignoring his constant disciplinary issues and failing to foresee a major dip in play, and gave Muhammad Wilkerson a 5-year megadeal (Wilkerson has a 40.9 PFF grade this year, 117^th among edge rushers). Drafting Leonard Williams was nice, but there wasn’t a single person who has ever watched football that wouldn’t have drafted him in that spot. And while it may be too early to pass judgement on some of his other picks—Devin Smith, Lorenzo Mauldin, Darron Lee and Jordan Jenkins to name a few—Maccagnan drafted Bryce Petty in the 4^th round, then drafted Christian Hackenberg in the second round the next year. If either of them starts for a team that comes remotely close to a winning season, it would be shocking. So, why exactly is their pressure on Todd Bowles instead of the person who built this horrific roster?

Titans -5 over JAGUARS: I have yet to see an adequate explanation of why people are assuming Dave Caldwell doesn’t draft a quarterback this season. Where is it written that a general manager must stay with the first quarterback he drafted until he’s fired? Blake Bortles is terrible—not drafting a quarterback would be committing negligence—and Caldwell’s other moves have generally been fine (if anything, he’s drafted well outside of Bortles). Caldwell has eyes. He can see that the Jaguars need a quarterback, as can anyone else with or without sight. Given that they will be drafting high, the Jaguars will probably draft a quarterback.

Chargers -6 over BROWNS: In lieu of actual Browns analysis, let's set an over/under for the attendance at First Energy Stadium on Sunday. The Browns reported attendance of over 60,000 for their last home game (any picture of the stadium at the time will contradict this number), so let’s put the over/under for reported attendance at 52,500 and the over/under for actual attendance at 12.5.

Colts +3.5 over RAIDERS: These teams are built similarly: high-powered offense compensating for a bad defense. Oakland has had more success because their offensive line is great and their coaching is much better than Indy’s, but neither team is going to have trouble scoring in this one. That makes it a winnable game for the Colts—don’t forget that they don’t just have an offense that can go toe-to-toe with the Raiders; they also have a better kicker. If nothing else, they should at least cover.

Buccaneers +3 over SAINTS: The Bucs are playing for their playoff lives, the Saints are playing for nothing. There’s no one on the Saints’ roster capable of covering Mike Evans and they’re 25^th in DVOA against tight ends, so expect Cameron Brate to have a nice game as well. Even with Jameis Winston being subpar at times, I’ve been impressed with the Bucs over recent weeks. With so much on the line—their playoff chances drop to 15 percent with a loss, per FiveThirtyEight—Tampa Bay should win this game outright.

SEAHAWKS -8 over Cardinals: With a win against the vastly inferior Cardinals, Seattle’s chances of a first-round bye rocket up to 94 percent, per FiveThirtyEight. That’s enough incentive to come out with full force at home and cover.

RAMS -3.5 over 49ers: I’m tempted to leave this space blank because there just isn’t anything to say about these teams. If you pay money to attend this game, it’s time to reevaluate things.

Bengals +1.5 over TEXANS: The Texans are 30^th in DVOA, below the Rams, 49ers, Jaguars and Bears. They just benched Brock Osweiler for a guy who couldn’t hold down a starting job at places like Pitt and Rutgers. Their coach makes an art out of being a moron—did you know that Bill O’Brien accepted a 5-yard penalty that negated an 18-yard gain two weeks ago[2]? Any time this team is favored, bet against them.

Ravens +5 over STEELERS: Baltimore can win at the line of scrimmage, pressure Ben Roethlisberger, slow down Le’Veon Bell and contain Antonio Brown enough to cover—and maybe even eke out a win. Even on the road, the weather will favor a Ravens team that leans on its defense. I don’t buy Pittsburgh’s defense either—against a great offensive line, their pass rush will wilt and the secondary will struggle to find a good matchup against Steve Smith. In a must-win game, I think the Ravens pull it out.

CHIEFS -3.5 over Broncos: If you’re going to bet on a team other than New England to win the AF, it should still be Kansas City at 15/2, per Vegas Insider. One game doesn’t change the fact that this is still a great defense, a great special teams and an offense playing better than it normally does. There’s still good value in this bet, but it won’t last if (and when) they close out the year strong.

COWBOYS -7 over Lions: This could be a resoundingly dominant performance by Dallas’ offense. Detroit is 31^st in defensive DVOA—they have no line and their best defensive back, Darius Slay, got hurt last week. The Cowboys should score at will—there is no position at which they do not have an advantage. Maybe the Lions can keep pace, but I doubt it.

 

Last Week: 4-11-1

Season: 117-100-7

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] If they play Detroit, however, they should get by.

[2] The only excuse is that it was on 1^st and 20, but the logic for that is in the same room as Andy Reid saying the Chiefs didn’t go no-huddle when they were down by two scores with 10 minutes left in the playoffs last year so New England wouldn’t have time to score again.

Week 15 Preview: Where do the Rams go from here?

This week, the Los Angeles Rams finally, mercifully, fired Jeff Fisher. To say it had been a long time coming would be an understatement—Fisher did not have a single winning season with the team and had not enjoyed a winning season with any team since before Barack Obama was President. He was a laughingstock and so were the Rams. They did the right thing in letting Fisher go, even if it was multiple years too late. The question now is how can they make up for all the mistakes he made?

The Rams certainly have talent—Aaron Donald is in the DPOY conversation on a yearly basis, Todd Gurley is one of the most talented running backs in the league and the team spent a #1 pick on Jared Goff last spring. The entire defense has ability—the Rams are 16^th in defensive DVOA and will get better if the front office hires the right coaches. The problem is on the other side of the ball. Goff didn’t play until far too late this season and even after a few games, it’s clear that there’s still a lot of developing to go before he looks like a top-notch quarterback. And thanks to Fisher’s (and the front office’s) epic whiffs in the draft, there’s almost nothing besides Gurley to build the offense around.

Left tackle Greg Robinson is one of the worst draft busts in recent memory. If there’s one decent receiver in the long term between Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin and Brian Quick, the Rams should consider it a success and the same goes for any player on an offensive line that ranks 25^th in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. To put yet another problem atop this mess, the Rams traded away their first and third round picks next season for Jared Goff—along with a bevy of picks in the 2016 Draft that produced Derrick Henry and Corey Coleman, among others.

Per Over the Cap, the Rams will have about $41 million to spend in free agency this offseason, but that doesn’t factor in players like Trumaine Johnson, Dominique Easley and T.J. McDonald who are due for raises. Building through free agency is also a dicey proposition—just ask Dave Caldwell—and handing out big money to upcoming free agents like Ronald Leary, T.J. Lang and Joe Bergercould backfire, costing the front office their jobs if Stan Kroenke gets impatient.

In the end, the best answer is probably to build up slowly. The Rams need to hire a good coach, develop Goff into a star, find better players in the draft and eventually build a contender around their defense. That doesn’t happen overnight and it won’t be good for their status in the L.A. market—especially if the Chargers follow through and move there this offseason—but the fact of the matter is that even without Jeff Fisher, the Rams may still be 7-9 in 2017.

On to this week’s picks.

Week 15 Picks

Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Rams +16 over SEAHAWKS: Forget the Rams’ success against Seattle, I just don’t think any team should be favored by 16 on a Thursday night. The short rest has too much of an effect. Seattle probably breaks their losing streak against L.A., but the offensive line’s struggles will be magnified with the short week and they could have trouble moving the ball as a result.

JETS +2.5 over Dolphins: Bryce Petty vs. Matt Moore rivals Alex Tanney vs. Ryan Lindley/Josh Johnson for the worst quarterback matchup in recent NFL history. I have nothing else to say about this game other than recommending that you avoid watching it.

Lions +4.5 over GIANTS: The Giants aren’t well-equipped to take advantage of Detroit’s deficiencies. They just turned in a horrendous offensive performance against Dallas, ranked 21^st in defensive DVOA, and have struggled to sustain drives all year. Detroit, 31^st in defensive DVOA, can do just as well as Dallas if Eli Manning keeps playing this badly. New York can still win the game with their defense, but the Lions should keep this one close enough to cover.  

RAVENS -6 over Eagles: Even after Tom Brady’s surgical dismantling of their defense on Monday, the Ravens rank second in defensive DVOA. Carson Wentz, on the road, with a notable lack of talent at skill positions, is going to have a tough time moving the ball. Maybe Philly’s defense slows down the Ravens enough to keep it close, but I like how Baltimore’s been playing lately. Every game is a must-win for them now—I don’t think they falter against a team that’s essentially out of the playoff picture.  

Packers -6.5 over BEARS: When the Packers struggled, people rushed to blame Aaron Rodgers. Now that the Packers are playing well, they rush to laud Mike McCarthy for getting them through tough times. I’d say that this is how you end up with Jeff Fisher, but it’s too late for the Packers, who will find themselves wondering why they keep going 7-9 in the years after Rodgers retires.

VIKINGS -4 over Colts: I’m so disappointed that Chuck Pagano wasn’t the first coach fired after I picked him at 12/1 before the season. The Colts had the perfect window to do it—right after they lost to Jacksonville in London—but they held out and stayed just competitive enough to justify keeping Pagano. Now, their chances to make the playoffs are virtually dead and they’ll probably fire Pagano (and Ryan Grigson) after the season for their colossal failure to build a contender around Andrew Luck. Oh, well.

BILLS -10 over Browns: If the Browns fire everyone after the season, then they deserve to be 0-16. They didn’t just know that this would be a rough year, even by their standards, they probably tanked to some extent. Oh, and every quarterback on their team got hurt. Football needs some sort of innovation. Maybe Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta’s plan works, maybe it doesn’t, but firing them now brings Cleveland back to square one for the nth year in a row.

Titans +5.5 over CHIEFS: The Chiefs should win this outright, but the Titans will run the ball, control possession and get Marcus Mariota to the red zone where he excels. Unless Kansas City really has abandoned their conservative approach, this will be a slow-developing game on their side as well. Maybe they can pull away with big plays on special teams—they seem to do it every week—but I expect the Titans to hang in and keep it close.

TEXANS -6 over Jaguars: Jacksonville has more incentive to tank than any team right now. Outside of Gus Bradley and Blake Bortles trying to save their own skins—something they have failed at spectacularly—there’s no reason for the franchise to win their remaining games this year. They quietly slid Julius Thomas and Jared Odrick to IR last week—don’t be surprised if Chris Ivory or Allen Hurns join them soon.

BENGALS +3 over Steelers: If A.J. Green is out, I’ll probably change this, but assuming he’s back, the Bengals are capable of beating Pittsburgh outright. There have been just four games this year where Green and Tyler Eifert have both been healthy—Pittsburgh is going to struggle to cover both. It’s also a revenge game of sorts for Vontaze Burfict, who was suspended for the initial meeting between these teams. Even with the Bengals out of it, I’m putting the Steelers on upset watch this week.

Saints +2.5 over CARDINALS: The Cardinals have an interesting dilemma with Carson Palmer in the offseason. I’m not sure what team would take him in a trade—his salary isn’t very high so maybe the Jets or 49ers go for it—but it’s clear that Arizona can’t win with him at the quarterback position. With talent all over the roster, it’s tough to just cut bait and sacrifice at least a year without any reward. Maybe they can trade up in the draft with one of the aforementioned teams, but that would involve shelling out future draft stock for an unproven rookie. It’s an unpleasant crossroads for a team that wanted to contend for a Super Bowl this season, but how they handle it will be telling.

FALCONS -14 over 49ers: I learned a few things last week. Among them were: don’t pick the Browns or 49ers, ever.

BRONCOS +3 over Patriots: Historically, playing in Denver has given New England fits during the Tom Brady Era. In nine games at Mile High since 2001, including the playoffs, the Patriots have won just twice. I also don’t entirely buy that New England’s offensive line is leaps and bounds better than last season. There’s certainly been improvement, but pass blocking will still be an issue against the squad that decimated them in the AFC Championship Game last season. If they’re going to lose a game for the rest of the season, this will be the one.

Raiders -3 over CHARGERS: This line is still factoring the Chargers as the home team, but there will probably be just as many (or more) Raider fans in attendance. With Philip Rivers struggling, San Diego having lost three of their last four and Oakland coming off 10 days’ rest, I’m not sure why this line isn’t closer to six or seven points.

COWBOYS -7 over Buccaneers: This is the game where Dak Prescott has to put the Romo debate to bed. Dallas is on national TV again, against an inferior opponent. If they can win convincingly behind their quarterback of the future, nobody will utter another word about this asinine debate again. Please Dak, save us from the takes.

REDSKINS -5 over Panthers: Carolina has yet to beat a team with a winning record and they won’t start this week . Washington’s receiving corps is too deep, their offensive line too good and Josh Norman too motivated for anything less than a convincing victory on Monday.

 

Last Week: 9-6-1

Season: 113-89-6

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

Week 14 Preview: Tom Brady is the MVP and it isn't close

The Most Valuable Player award is meant to represent the best player in a given sport. Sure, we can get into semantics and argue about the use of the word “valuable,” but the award is supposed to be given to the best player. With that simple definition in mind, the best player in football this year—and thus the MVP—is Tom Brady.

Yes, he missed four games thanks to an unjust suspension, but that doesn’t change what he did on the field. Right now, Brady leads the league in passer rating, QBR and adjusted net yards per attempt. On a per game basis, he’s fourth in passing yards. He’s also third in touchdown percentage and is on pace to set a single-season record for interception percentage, having been picked off on just 0.3 percent of his throws. Despite throwing downfield with regularity—he has a 2.4 ALEX—Brady is third in completion percentage and despite missing those four games, he’s sixth in DYAR, ahead of Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger by notable margins. Brady also has a 95.4 PFF grade—that’s not just the best among quarterbacks, it’s tied with Aaron Donald for the best in football.  

Put all of this together and it’s hard to find a reason not to give the award to Brady. Missing four games means that the bar is set higher for him, but if he hasn’t hit that bar then what else could he possibly do? The only reason more people haven’t advocated for Brady is that there’s been a lack of signature moments on his part—in other words, the Patriots are too good. Outside of the game they lost to Seattle and their victory against the Jets two weeks ago, New England hasn’t had any close games this season since Brady returned. They haven’t beaten expectations either because the expectation is a Super Bowl. That makes Brady a boring pick—the suspension only gives voters an excuse to go with Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Ezekiel Elliott or Dak Prescott, all of whom have been worse than Brady this year.

It’s easy to overlook because, let’s face it, we expect it at this point. Anything less than an AFC title game appearance would inspire Skip Bayless to proclaim that Jimmy Garoppolo should start next season. But that expectation has clouded our judgement. If we look at things objectively, Tom Brady has been the best player in football this year and it isn’t very close.

Week 14 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

CHIEFS -3 over Raiders: Kansas City matches up well in this game. They can move the ball against a bad defense and slow down Oakland just enough to eke out a win. Justin Houston will go up against Austin Howard, by far the worst player on Oakland’s offensive line—so the Chiefs may be able to manufacture some pressure against a normally sound Raider line. It only takes a small explosion from Oakland to win—they went from down 24-9 to up 38-24 in a matter of minutes on Sunday—but Kansas City has already slowed them down this year and that was on the road, without the short week. If the Chiefs can win this game, they’ll take up the mantle in the AFC as the team to beat (outside of New England that is), so take them at 6/1 to win the AFC or 12/1 to win the Super Bowl while you can.

TITANS -1 over Broncos: Like last week, I’ll reexamine this once we know Trevor Siemian’s status. As of now, I assume he’s out, so I like Tennessee. The Broncos, despite ranking first in defensive DVOA, are 26^th in run defense DVOA, which plays right into the Titans’ wheelhouse. Couple that with Marcus Mariota’s off the charts red zone efficiency and Tennessee should be able to win this game if Denver is forced to start the ever-hapless Paxton Lynch at quarterback.

Chargers +1 over PANTHERS: This game has no impact on the playoff picture, so let’s talk about the absurdity of the Chargers potentially playing games at the L.A. Coliseum next season instead. I understand there aren’t many good options in Los Angeles, but having three teams play at a stadium that’s already run down is a disaster waiting to happen. Every home Rams game already features the USC logo badly hidden underneath the NFL logo at midfield, we don’t need to add a third team to this mix. Go to the StubHub Center and deal with the smallest crowd in the league (by far) for two years. Try to work out a deal with the Rose Bowl. Stay in San Diego until the Rams’ complex in Los Angeles is complete. I don’t really care; just don’t subject us to a year of stories about the field at the Coliseum being unplayable.

Texans +6 over COLTS: This line is an overreaction to Indy beating up on the Jets in a nationally televised game. The Colts shouldn’t be six-point favorites over any remotely competitive team—they rank 30^th in defensive DVOA and provide almost exclusively on Andrew Luck to move the ball. Maybe they win this one outright—Brock Osweiler is certainly incompetent enough to make it happen—but they should at least keep this game close.

BROWNS +5.5 over Bengals: The Browns are +210 to win straight-up this week, per Sportsbook, and +130 to finish 0-16. One of those two things will happen. This is by far their best chance to win—Robert Griffin III is coming back and the Bengals are both in the midst of a death march and badly depleted without A.J. Green. If they lose, their remaining games are against Buffalo, San Diego and Pittsburgh. Unless the Steelers win their next three and decide to rest their players in Week 17 instead of going for a slim chance at the #2 seed, none of those are winnable for the Browns. With better-than-even odds on both, this is easy money.

BILLS +2 over Steelers: I don’t understand why the Steelers are favored in this game. Not only are they on the road, but the Bills are a better team. They have the best run game in the league by DVOA—Pittsburgh is a respectable 12^th in adjusted line yards on defense, but they’re not going into the cold and stopping LeSean McCoy. If the Bills can turn this into a contest of running backs, they’re going to win. As good as Le’Veon Bell is, the Bills have a better defensive front than Pittsburgh, the weather on their side and a much better running game by DVOA. Buffalo can, and will, win this game outright.

DOLPHINS -1 over Cardinals: The Cardinals have played well lately and Miami just got embarrassed in a huge game, but until the Arizona at 1 PM on the East Coast Corollary fails, I’m blindly going by it.

Bears +8 over LIONS: The Lions are coming off games against Minnesota and New Orleans; after this week, they visit the Giants and Cowboys. This has trap game written all over it. The Bears can run the ball against a shambolic Detroit defense and on the other side of the ball, Chicago quietly ranks 16^th in DVOA. That’s good enough to cover—and maybe even eke out a win—against a Detroit side looking for a week off.

Vikings -3.5 over JAGUARS: If the Jaguars lose out, they probably end up with the #2 pick. With Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson both available in the Draft, I’m not sure how you can justify not tanking—a perfect explanation for why the Jags are waiting until the season ends to fire Gus Bradley.

Redskins -1 over EAGLES: A few weeks ago, I wrote that if the Wentz Wagon were in the Oregon Trail game, everyone on it would have dysentery. Now, there’s only one ox left—the rest have been killed for food—and about half the people on the wagon are dead. Also, they still need to cross the Mississippi River.

49ERS -2.5 over Jets: I don’t think Todd Bowles is a bad coach, but he’s trying as hard as he can to prove me wrong. The Jets have flat-out quit on the season and they announced it on national television. With Bryce Petty starting for the remainder of the year, it’s tough to see them competing in any games—even against whichever quarterback Chip Kelly trots out this week in San Francisco[1].

BUCCANEERS -2.5 over Saints: I bet against Tampa worming their way into the playoff conversation and they proved me wrong. They should move the ball at will against New Orleans—which ranks 25^th in defensive DVOA and features no player remotely capable of covering Mike Evans. This game should be an interesting test for their defense, but given how well they’ve played against Kansas City, Seattle and San Diego in the past three weeks, I like their chances.

Seahawks -3 over PACKERS: Quality of opponent matters. In the past two weeks, the Packers have played the Eagles and Texans—two teams that will get trounced in the first round if things go perfectly for the rest of the season—and looked great. Against Seattle—a Super Bowl contender—things might not go as well. Even without Earl Thomas, the Seahawks are still capable of consistently pressuring Aaron Rodgers and making things tough for a receiving corps that regularly struggles to get open. With Thomas Rawls back and Green Bay’s defense ranking 20^th in weighted DVOA, Seattle can move the ball on offense as well. Unless Rodgers puts in an incredible performance, the Packers are in danger of being blown out.

Falcons -6 over RAMS: Jeff Fisher may be having the worst two-week stretch in the history of coaching. He forgot the name of New England’s running backs; had the entire world laugh at his extension; got blown out against the Patriots, forgetting where his challenge flag was in the middle of it; forgot his general manager also received an extension, then tried to look at the bright side by talking about how good the Rams are at punting and saying that they don’t have to leave Pacific Standard Time again this year (never mind that Los Angeles is 2-4 in their own time zone). If the Rams lose this week, Fisher ties Dan Reeves for the most coaching losses of all-time, with nearly 17 less wins, 19 less overall games and three less playoff appearances. Fisher’s last winning season was during the Bush administration—it’s becoming increasingly safe to say that he’s among the worst coaches of all-time.

Cowboys -3 over GIANTS: With a depleted defensive line, the Giants are going to have trouble in run defense—normally their calling card—and it’s going to be tough for them to contain one of the league’s best passing attacks. Unless Eli Manning shakes off his struggles in a big way, I don’t see how New York can keep up with the Cowboys’ offense.

Ravens +7 over PATRIOTS: This reminds me a lot of the playoff game between these teams two years ago. The Patriots won that game despite having no run game or pass rush thanks to one of the best games of Tom Brady’s career and an insane coaching performance from Bill Belichick—featuring Julian Edelman throwing a touchdown pass and eligible/ineligible receiver shenanigans that drove John Harbaugh to insanity. Belichick won’t break out those goods for a regular season game when the Patriots have a tight grip on the division and the Patriots don’t have Rob Gronkowski to bail them out if needed. I think they still manage to win it, but this should be a close game—perhaps the highlight of Monday Night Football this year.

 

Last Week: 8-7-0

Season: 104-83-5

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] I don’t think I’ve ever been proven wrong more quickly than last week with Colin Kaepernick. He truly did play well for two games and I talked myself into Kaepernick potentially being redeemable. Then, he threw for four yards. The internet always laughs at people for saying “I could do (blank),” but most able-bodied people could throw for four yards in an NFL game—even in cold weather. As long as you complete one or two screen passes, you’re set, but Kaepernick couldn’t even do that. It’s sort of incredible.

Week 13 Preview: Don't underestimate the Chiefs

Here’s a stat that may surprise you: according to FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, the Kansas City Chiefs have a 14 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl—tied with the Seattle Seahawks and behind only the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys. Make of that what you will—I don’t think the Chiefs’ Super Bowl chances are that high—but the number underscores the fact that no team this good has been so under the radar in recent memory.

It’s understandable why the public isn’t particularly interested in the Chiefs. I hate to sound like a curmudgeon at age 17, but without any enthralling fantasy football options on the team, there won’t be many people outside of Kansas City interested in watching them on a weekly basis. That’s fine, but as a result, the public has yet to catch on to just how good this team is.  Get into a conversation about the NFL and the Chiefs are often an afterthought at best. Tell someone they have a respectable chance at winning the whole thing and they’ll look at you as if you have three heads. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have as good a chance as anyone. Maybe not as high as 14 percent, but the 6.2 percent proposed by Football Outsiders—higher than all but five teams—is more than feasible.

Nobody likes to admit it, but Alex Smith and Andy Reid aren’t all that bad of a combination. Smith is the prototypical Dilfer Zone quarterback—he may not be the reason you’re winning, but he sure as hell won’t be an obstacle. Reid is frustrating late in games—he mismanages the clock and tries turning 2-minute drills into 10-hour marathons all too often—but his teams consistently play at or above expectations. With the right supporting cast, it’s not hard to see them winning games in the postseason and the Chiefs may have the right supporting cast.

Offensively, they can do just enough. Spencer Ware has kept the run game afloat by averaging 4.7 yards per carry and ranking inside the top-15 in DYAR and DVOA. The offensive line isn’t noticeably good, but all five players are average by PFF grading, meaning that none can be exploited by the likes of Von Miller in the way Marcus Cannon and Mike Remmers were last postseason. Travis Kelce is a unique, if underused threat. Defenses struggle to match up with him and the threat of a Gronk-like run up the seam is always there—it’s just a matter of when KC breaks it out. Tyreek Hill has turned into a dynamic playmaker in the screen game who picks up yardage after the catch as well as anyone in the league. He’s also spearheaded a special teams unit that ranks second in DVOA. (Don’t underestimate special teams in the playoffs. They were a big reason why Kansas City won against Houston in the wild card last season and the ability to maintain good field position is huge for a team like the Chiefs, especially on the road or in cold weather). Jeremy Maclin is also set to return soon—he’ll add the element this offense desperately lacks: a receiver who can consistently make plays downfield. It’s not the best offense in the league, but it can certainly supplement a defense that is among the top of its class.

With Justin Houston making a triumphant, resounding return over the past two weeks, the Chiefs’ pass rush is suddenly among the most fearsome in football. Dee Ford has piled up sacks—10 to be exact—with Chris Jones and Dontari Poe making positive contributions as well. Throw Houston into that mix and things are downright scary.

The inside linebacker position has been better than expected with Derrick Johnson posting an 82.8 PFF grade and Ramik Wilson ranking eighth at the position by PFF grading. The secondary can potentially be exploited—Phillip Gaines has been a frequent culprit—but Marcus Peters, Eric Berry and Ron Parker cover over the mistakes most weeks.

With sparingly few well-rounded teams this season, the time is ripe for Kansas City. Each potential opponent can be exploited in some way—New England via its lack of a pass rush, Oakland via its lack of a secondary, Denver via its offensive line and lack of a run game and so on—but outside of Gaines and potentially Kenneth Acker, there isn’t a glaring weakness for teams to go after when they play the Chiefs. If they can play to their potential defensively, this team is a Super Bowl contender, whether the public realizes it or not.

Week 13 Picks

 Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Cowboys -3 over VIKINGS: Dallas’ defense will come back to bite them at some point, but it won’t be against a team that ranks 25^th in offensive DVOA and features a quarterback with an ALEX lower than Alex Smith himself. On the other side of the ball, I just don’t think any team can compete with the Cowboys’ offensive line. Quietly, one of the most important events of the year for them was La’El Collins getting hurt, which allowed Ron Leary to come back to the starting lineup at left guard. Over the first three games, Collins had a 42.1 PFF grade. Since Leary has started, he’s had an 81.9 PFF grade.

Broncos -4.5 over JAGUARS: This pick is contingent on Trevor Siemian playing—I would take Blake Bortles over Paxton Lynch if it came to that—but I don’t think there’s any way the Jaguars can compete with Denver if Siemian plays. Jacksonville should have one goal for the rest of the season: making a definitive choice as to whether or not Bortles can be their quarterback for the next 10 years. I can’t profess to know a lot about the quarterback class in the draft this year, but if the Jaguars are going to make a change, it should be sooner rather than later.

Chiefs +3.5 over FALCONS: After the top of this column, all I’ll say is that I will continue to take Kansas City as long as the public underestimates them against tough competition. 4  

PACKERS -6.5 over Texans: I’ve been spending way too much time playing with the New York Times’ playoff simulator and here’s what it looks like in the AFC South: if Houston can win three more games, it would take a minor miracle for them to miss the postseason. If they only win two, it has to be against Indy and Tennessee, otherwise things get dicey. Even in that scenario, however, the Titans would need to beat either Kansas City or Denver to get in, meaning that the favorite would be the Colts, who have a much easier schedule. If Houston can beat them next week, it virtually eliminates them and if they can beat Tennessee in Week 17, it virtually eliminates them. And, unfortunately, both of those seem possible.

Eagles -1 over BENGALS: What reason is there to pick the Bengals at this point? There’s nobody for Andy Dalton to throw the ball to, Jeremy Hill looked bad last week and is probably playing hurt, Vontaze Burfict might kill somebody on defense and Mike Nugent can’t make an extra point to save his life. I was optimistic about this team at the beginning of the year, but things have gone as badly as they possibly could have gone.

Lions +6 over SAINTS: Per Football Outsiders’ premium DVOA database, the Lions’ defensive DVOA over their past four games is 9.45 percent. That’s not good by any means—it would rank 29^th on the year—but it is nearly twice as good as the 18.4 percent mark they have over the year, which ranks 31^st. When you have a dynamic passing game as Detroit does, you don’t need much from the defense—especially in a shootout like this week’s game looks to be. Of course, the same logic applies to the Saints, but with this game being winnable for both sides, the six-point spread looks good for the underdog.    

49ers +1.5 over BEARS: One of many unfortunate things about Colin Kaepernick’s recent comments regarding Fidel Castro is that they’ve overshadowed a small resurgence in his play. The 49ers have lost their last four games, but Kaepernick has played well in each of them—particularly in the past three, all of which were winnable. Kaepernick is running the ball well; he’s making something out of a horrific receiving corps and keeping the Niners in games. Most importantly, he’s thrown just two interceptions in those four games. It won’t save San Francisco’s season—it might even ruin their shot at a better draft pick—but it is nice to see him playing well after it looked like his career was over a year ago.

PATRIOTS -13.5 over Rams: Jeff Fisher’s week has included alienating his franchise’s best player of all-time, losing his 163^rd game—which ranks second all-time (he’s only two losses away from tying Dan Reeves for the most)—and telling New England reporters about the importance of stopping Brandon Bolden and Danny Woodhead in this week’s game. Bolden has four carries this season and Woodhead plays for San Diego. At some point, we have to entertain the possibility that Jeff Fisher is pulling a Costanza and trying to lose his job.

RAVENS -3 over Dolphins: This is a stay-away of the highest order, but I went with Baltimore. They’re at home, they rank first in defensive DVOA and in a defensive game, being able to kick from anywhere inside the opposing 45-yard line with confidence can make a difference. That being said, nobody should bet on this game.

RAIDERS -3 over Bills: Outside of cold weather games, I’m not sure the Raiders' offense can be stopped. If they can get the #1 seed—a scenario I consider unlikely given that they still have to go on the road to Denver and Kansas City—Oakland is the biggest threat to New England in the AFC. As for this week, I don’t think Buffalo’s offense is good enough to keep up with the Raiders unless they can force a couple of turnovers defensively. The problem: Oakland has turned it over just nine times, the sixth-best mark in the league.

CHARGERS -3.5 over Buccaneers: Quietly, this is one of the most interesting games of the weekend. If Tampa Bay loses, they would need to win all three remaining divisional game—two against New Orleans and one against Carolina—to make the playoffs (assuming they lose against Dallas in two weeks). Despite that, I just don’t think they can get another top-notch defensive performance against Philip Rivers, who has quietly put together one of the better seasons in the league. Normally I love going against San Diego at home, but this has the makings of a game they should win—and cover—with the Bucs’ luck ready to run out.

Redskins +2.5 over CARDINALS: Carson Palmer ranks 25^th in DYAR, 24^th in DVOA and 23^rd in QBR. If the Cardinals go down by two scores early, they aren’t coming back. Rob Kelley is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and Kirk Cousins is on his way to 4,000 yards thanks to one of the best receiving corps in football[1]. In other words, the Redskins can get up by two scores.

Giants +6 over STEELERS: I picked the Steelers to miss the playoffs at the beginning of the year and still think it’s unlikely that they’re playing in January. It’s not just that the defense isn’t good enough (it isn’t), the offense has suffered more than anyone expected from losing Martavis Bryant. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are great, but it’s tough to be an incredible offensive team when you’re relying on two skill position players to do everything. Eli Rogers is interesting in the long-term, but he’s been too inconsistent to make a big difference this year. Against a team like New York that can win at the line of scrimmage, slow down the run and do a passable job covering Brown, it’s just too hard for Pittsburgh to move the ball.

SEAHAWKS -7 over Panthers: With Justin Britt likely back at center, Seattle’s offensive line can survive just enough at home for them to eke out a cover. Expect constant pressure on both quarterbacks, but with Michael Bennett expected to return for Seattle and Ryan Kalil—and backup center Gino Gradkowski—out for the Panthers, things could get ugly for Cam Newton and whatever run game Carolina has salvaged this season.

Colts -2 over JETS: The Jets may look appealing after last week, but remember that they’ve played the Patriots close ever since Rex Ryan became their head coach all the way back in 2009. This line is an overreaction to that—as long as Andrew Luck plays, this game will be a blowout.

 

Last Week: 7-8-1

Season: 96-76-5

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Jamison Crowder is averaging 6.29 YAC per reception according to NFL GSIS. That’s not the highest among receivers—Golden Tate, Ty Montgomery, Adam Humphries, Cordarrelle Patterson and Randall Cobb all have more—but when you factor in that his average reception is caught 6.89 yards away from the line of scrimmage, it’s easily the most impressive. In light of this, can we make Crowder’s nickname “YAC God”?

Week 12 Preview: Thanksgiving Watchability Rankings

Welcome to the annual Thanksgiving Watchability Rankings. These rankings are based solely on how fun it is to watch a given team—win-loss record is not taken into account, though better teams are often more fun to watch, nor is any statistical factor. Let’s get right to it.

Tier 7: Avoid under all circumstances

32. Los Angeles Rams
33. San Francisco 49ers
34. New York Jets
35. Jacksonville Jaguars
36. Cleveland Browns
37. Chicago Bears
38. Houston Texans

If you’re watching one of these teams, strap in for a long game. Bad quarterbacks consume each of them, which offset any redeeming value they should have as a team. Take out the revolving door of misery at quarterback and the Browns, for example, are sort of fun. Terrelle Pryor does things, Isaiah Crowell is a good, physical running back and Hue Jackson is an inventive coach. But alas, Josh McCown and Cody Kessler will get the majority of snaps at quarterback this year, confining their offense to stagnation. There are similar situations for just about every team in this tier—it serves as a reminder that teams like Denver are the exception, not the rule. If you’re going to compete, quarterbacks are pretty damn important.

Tier 6: Competitive but boring

25. Indianapolis Colts
26. Green Bay Packers
27. Tennessee Titans
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. Miami Dolphins

Seeing the Colts and Packers here may surprise people, but both teams are sloppy, badly coached and lacking in any redeeming value outside of the quarterback position. In Indianapolis, Andrew Luck rarely has time to throw the ball and while Aaron Rodgers often has ample time, no Packers receiver can get open downfield. The Titans should be higher up, but they play such a primitive style that if the offense isn’t humming, it can be hard to sit through. Tampa and Miami are less interesting on paper—and have less upside in watchability—but things are more consistent in both places.

Tier 5: Meh

20. Cincinnati Bengals
21. Arizona Cardinals
22. Baltimore Ravens

None of these teams is particularly awe-inspiring, but each of them will give you a decent game to watch. The Bengals may slide in the wake of injuries to A.J. Green, their most dynamic player, and Giovani Bernard—I dropped them from 18 to 20 and it may have been too generous—but Tyler Eifert gets rolling, it’s mesmerizing football. The Cardinals and Ravens aren’t particularly fun offensively, but consistently play competitive games. Plus, who doesn’t love to watch Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith put the rest of the NFL to shame?

Tier 4: Sure, why not?

17. Detroit Lions
18. Minnesota Vikings
19. New York Giants
20. Philadelphia Eagles
21. Carolina Panthers
22. Washington Redskins

Other than Minnesota (and arguably Philly), every team in this tier is capable of moving the ball on offense and other than Carolina, every team in this tier is going to be playing meaningful games over the next month. I’m particularly optimistic about Washington’s watchability—Jay Gruden has quietly built up one of the best skill position groups in the league. There aren’t any superstars (though if Rob Kelley continues on his current pace, he will be one soon), but it’s impossible to defend Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson all at once. There’s just too much talent on the field—and Kirk Cousins often has his pick of where to throw.

Tier 4: Good defense, bad offense

11. Kansas City Chiefs
12. Buffalo Bills

Kansas City and Buffalo remind us every week that defense is fun too. Marcus Peters is the cornerback version of Barry Sanders—you’re getting either an awe-inspiring interception or a badly blown coverage with little room for moderation. They also got Justin Houston back last week to improve the pass rush, which had lagged a bit in his absence. The Bills have set the standard in terms of rushing the passer this season, leading the league in adjusted sack rate. Both teams have enough dynamism offensively to keep you entertained as well. It’s fun to watch LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware run the ball. Alex Smith isn’t tossing many deep balls, but Tyrod Taylor can still drop one or two dimes per game, even without Sammy Watkins.

Tier 3: Good offense, bad defense

9. New Orleans Saints
10. Atlanta Falcons

The Saints are fifth in offensive DVOA and 24^th in defensive DVOA; Atlanta is second in offensive DVOA and 27^th in defensive DVOA. That doesn’t just mean fun offense, it means high-scoring games, like the Packers-Falcons game that ended 33-32 in Week 8—one of the better matchups this season. Watching Drew Brees and Matt Ryan work in the pocket is a treat—both operate efficiently and surgically. The Falcons have bigger names at the skill positions—Julio Jones does things that humans shouldn’t be capable of on a weekly basis—but the Saints have quietly put together a decent run game and turned unknowns like Michael Thomas into weapons at wide receiver.

Tier 2: Stop what you’re doing to watch

7. Denver Broncos
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. San Diego Chargers
10. Seattle Seahawks
11. New England Patriots

I don’t think the Steelers or Chargers are making the playoffs, but both have partaken in some of the best games this season. The Steelers-Cowboys game two weeks ago is on the shortlist for Game of the Year and when healthy, the Pittsburgh moves the ball like no other team. The Roethlisberger-Bell-Brown combination is lethel to most defenses—we haven’t gotten many instances this year of all three being 100 percent, but there will be more in the next month. In San Diego, Philip Rivers has cemented himself as arguably the most underrated players in football. And Rivers isn’t marching the Chargers downfield, they’re often imploding—San Diego has lost more heartbreakers this year than you can count. Denver isn’t the best offensive team in the league, but Von Miller’s ability on defense more than makes up for it. In New England and Seattle, you get high-quality football through and through. They are the two best teams in football—it’s always must-see when either comes across your television.

Tier 1: Dallas and Oakland

2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Oakland Raiders

Oakland gets the top spot because they play more close games—they even made the Texans palatable on Monday night—but both of these teams are offensive machines. Dallas can put Ezekiel Elliott behind their offensive line and guarantee fireworks on any drive while Derek Carr can rip it to Oakland’s All-Star cast of wideouts and do the same. Forget about measuring these teams against the rest of football—watching these two offenses at work is one of the most enjoyable experiences you’ll have this year.

On to the picks.

Week 12 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Vikings +1.5 over LIONS: The central question to every Vikings game is whether their offensive line can function. The Lions rank 18^th in adjusted sack rate and 24^th in adjusted line yards, but Kerry Hyder is their only starting lineman with a PFF grade above 51.3. I’m not as worried about Minnesota being on the road since Ford Field is indoors and it’s a short week, which means all conventional wisdom can be thrown out the window. As long Minnesota’s line holds up, they should win this game outright.

COWBOYS -7 over Redskins: I thought Baltimore was the perfect foil for Dallas last week and for the first half, I was right. Then the Cowboys essentially moved the ball at will in the second half and I realized that it’s almost impossible to stop this team from moving the ball for an entire game. I don’t think the Redskins can win a shootout—it’s an especially short turnaround for them after playing on Sunday night and Dallas is good enough defensively to prevent the big plays that Washington thrived on against Green Bay.

Steelers -9 over COLTS: The Colts rank 31^st in defensive DVOA and Scott Tolzien is playing quarterback for them. There is no reason this line shouldn’t be at least 13.5 points[1].

Chargers -1.5 over TEXANS: Brock Osweiler currently ranks dead last among qualified quarterbacks with -448 DYAR. Second worst is Ryan Fitzpatrick with -360 DYAR. In short, don’t put money on Brock Osweiler.

Titans -5 over BEARS: Matt Barkley’s career stats: 36/65, 381 yards, 0 TDs, 6 INTs, 1.12 adjusted net yards per attempt. If you thought the quality of the quarterback position was bad, this will not be a fun week for you.

BILLS -7.5 over Jaguars: Jacksonville is 23^rd in run defense DVOA and 32^nd in power success. Now they have to go to Buffalo—where the high temperature will be 42 degrees according to AccuWeather—and stop the best rushing attack in the league by DVOA. For once, Blake Bortles won’t be the biggest reason for a Jacksonville loss.

Bengals +4 over RAVENS: The Bengals have won just one game since Week 5 and I don’t expect that this will be the second. However, this line seems like a bit of an overreaction to A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard being injured. Baltimore is a bad offensive team—even against a mediocre Bengals defense, they’ll struggle to move the ball. In a low-scoring game, I like the underdog.

FALCONS -4 over Cardinals: I’m not going to try to explain this phenomena, but the Cardinals are consistently awful on the East Coast. They haven’t won a game in the Eastern time zone since Week 8 of last season—against the Browns. With Carson Palmer finding it impossible to replicate his MVP-caliber 2015, I don’t love Arizona in this matchup either way, but they just can’t play on the East Coast.

DOLPHINS -7.5 over 49ers: Over the past few weeks, Miami has convinced me that they’re at least a playoff contender. There’s trap game potential here, but this is still a must-win game if the Dolphins are to keep that status. If they lose, their playoff odds drop to 22 percent, per the NYT Upshot simulator, with games coming against Baltimore and Arizona that would turn into must-win contests.

Rams +7 over SAINTS: Jared Goff was, um, uninspiring last week, but that’s almost to be expected in his debut—especially when things have been so horribly mismanaged. He gets to face a bad defense this week—for all the credit New Orleans has gotten; they still rank 24^th in defensive DVOA—and the Rams can slow down the Saints enough to keep it close. They have arguably the best run defense in football and their secondary will hold up if Aaron Donald and co can pressure Drew Brees with some consistency.

Giants -7 over BROWNS: Watching Josh McCown is one of the most depressing experiences you can have as a football fan. The Browns have at least been feisty at times with Cody Kessler under center, but kicking off with McCown as your starter is like signing a declaration of war underneath a white flag. Here’s to Robert Griffin III returning soon.

Seahawks -6 over BUCCANEERS: The Seahawks have taken the top spot in DVOA and they are playing like the best team in football. Russell Wilson is healthy, the defense looks great (with Michael Bennett potentially returning this week) and the offensive line is playing at a semi-acceptable level. I can’t see Jameis Winston keeping it close against this defense at full strength—the only way the Bucs cover is by consistently getting pressure, forcing Wilson to break the pocket and make plays with his legs, where the injury may still be taking a toll. However, Tampa is a mediocre 15^th in adjusted sack rate, so that seems unlikely.

Panthers +3 over RAIDERS: Oakland’s defense is going to be a liability for them in games like this. Carolina is coming off 10 days rest while the Raiders are on six days rest after playing on a Monday night in Mexico City. That doesn’t bode well for a team that ranks 29^th in defensive DVOA. Furthermore, the Raiders can’t match up with Greg Olsen and will struggle against a strong receiving corps. Sure, they may be able to keep up on the opposite end, but Carolina’s defense is significantly better—even without Luke Kuechly—and their secondary has put it together for the past few weeks.

Patriots -7.5 over JETS: Thank god they flexed this game out of prime time. Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday Night Football would have been an unmitigated disaster for all parties involved.

Chiefs +3 over BRONCOS: This game will come down to two things: defense and field position. The Broncos have the best defense in the league, but KC has the edge in field position. The Chiefs are also going to turn the ball over less—one of few positive outcomes resulting from Alex Smith being their quarterback. There is a clear advantage for Denver defensively, but the Chiefs are barely outside the top-10 in DVOA and Trevor Siemian isn’t exactly picking teams apart. This game is close to a toss-up, but I give it to the Chiefs by a hair.

Packers +4 over EAGLES: If the Wentz Wagon was in the Oregon Trail game, everyone on it would have contracted dysentery over the past few weeks—the rookie quarterback has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions in the past three games with a paltry 58.59 completion percentage. Nobody’s dying yet—that wagon made it pretty far before people started getting sick—but prospects are grim.

 

Last Week: 8-5-1

Season: 89-68-4

All stats are from pro-football reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Isn’t a Steelers/Giants/Patriots 6-point teaser the easiest bet of the year? How is the Pittsburgh line not higher solely to prevent people from betting their life savings on that tease?

Week 11 Preview: Eulogizing Tony Romo's career

One of my earliest football memories is walking into Sal’s Pizzeria in Mamaroneck as the 2007 NFC Divisional Round game between the Giants and Cowboys was nearing its conclusion. Dallas had the ball near the red zone with no timeouts left, needing a score to win. I stood by the counter watching as the Tony Romo threw two incomplete passes then, on 4^th and 11, was intercepted by R.W. McQuarters in the end zone.

My first memory of Tony Romo is the same as the memory of him that will endure among many as the years pass: choking away a game the Cowboys—7-point favorites in this specific matchup—should have won. And that’s unfortunate. Romo’s failures on the biggest stages—dropping the snap against Seattle, the McQuarters interception, two Week 17 losses that decided the division and even the playoff game in Green Bay two years ago—will forever overshadow the fact that for eight seasons—2006-2014[1]—he turned the Cowboys into a respectable team despite a supporting cast that was often forgettable at best. When finally given a good team to play with, Romo turned the Cowboys into a Super Bowl contender, turning in MVP-type numbers in 2014 and directing the best offense in the league. In 2015, when he could have followed up on that year, Romo instead suffered an injury. In 2016, when he could have redeemed himself yet again, another injury sunk his season and allowed him to be supplanted by Dak Prescott, likely ending any chance Romo had of winning a title as a starter.

After his press conference yesterday, I decided to pull up a comparison of Romo and Dan Marino, just for kicks. Marino played nearly 100 more games so the counting stats aren’t close except for sacks—Romo is just 28 behind Marino, an apt metaphor for his career. In terms of rate stats—completion percentage, passer rating, yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt—Romo nearly sweeps the entire board. Things are easier for quarterbacks now than in the ‘80s and ‘90s when Marino played, both from a coaching and rules perspective, so if you want to throw that comparison out then go ahead, but there are probably few quarterbacks with more similar careers. And I don’t know if Marino was seen as a choker the way Romo is, but if he played today I can guarantee that Miami’s 8-10 record with him in the postseason—along with the fact that they made it to the Divisional Round the year after he retired—would dominate the conversation around him, just as similar shortcomings will dominate the conversation around Romo for the rest of time.

On to the picks.

Week 11 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Saints +3.5 over PANTHERS: Carolina’s playoff chances are being vastly overstated right now. They are 3-6, in last place in the NFC South, with a bad secondary and offensive line. Their playoff chances don’t hinge on this game—their playoff chances are already dead. New Orleans isn’t particularly trustworthy in this game either—the 29^th ranked defense by DVOA on the road with a short week doesn’t inspire confidence, but the Saints can win a shootout, or at least keep it close enough to cover, if necessary.

Titans +3 over COLTS: They may not be able to overcome a 1.5-game deficit, but the Titans are the best team in the AFC South and it is not close. Marcus Mariota looks great, even with the Mike Mularkey-induced handicap he ranks 10^th in DYAR and 11^th in DVOA among quarterbacks. The Colts won’t be able to get pressure against a line that has quietly been one of the best in football and Tennessee will be able to move the ball at will against the 31^st-ranked defense by DVOA. The Titans should win this game outright, let alone against the spread.

LIONS -6.5 over Jaguars: Is there really much explanation needed after this? 

CHIEFS -7.5 over Buccaneers: According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, the Chiefs are the second-best team in football, with the third-best chance to win the Super Bowl. I would not go that far, but Kansas City is a lot better than people think—the defense has ranked top-10 in DVOA without Justin Houston, and even though the offense is far from inspiring, it is good enough to win on a given week. I do not trust Jameis Winston for a second on the road against a great defense—he has played well as of late, but the Bucs have had an easy schedule for the past few weeks. If his play continues this week and next week—against Seattle—then I’ll buy Jameis stock, but until then I’m holding off.

GIANTS -7.5 over Bears: After Jay Cutler’s recent performances and Mike Freeman reporting that most of the locker room has given up on their quarterback, I’m surprised that this line is still in the single digits. At this point, it’s pretty hard to fathom the Bears even competing on the road against a potential playoff team—even if the Giants have a history of blowing games like this one.

VIKINGS over Cardinals (pick’em): I would not touch this game with a 10-foot pole. The Vikings are still reeling after losing their fourth straight game and Arizona’s offense was horrific against the 49ers last week (along with every other opponent they have played this year). I think Minnesota can win a low-scoring game because their special teams are significantly better, but I do not have much faith in them after the past few weeks.

Bills +3 over BENGALS: The Bills can win this game outright. Cincinnati is vulnerable on the offensive line and Buffalo leads the league in adjusted sack rate already. Offensively, the Bills can move the ball with the run game—Cincy ranks 20^th in run defense DVOA—and Tyrod Taylor is good enough to throw deep against a Bengals’ defense that ranks 29^th in DVOA against deep balls. The Bengals are a better team on paper, but the matchup favors the Bills.

Ravens +7 over COWBOYS: If any team in the league can slow down the Cowboys’ offense, it’s the Baltimore Ravens. John Harbaugh’s squad has the best run defense in the league by DVOA and is just outside the top-5 in pass defense DVOA. Dallas’ offensive line may be good enough that it won’t matter, but if the Ravens can force Dak Prescott to operate without a run game—and potentially without a lead—it will take the rookie out of his comfort zone and could force a few mistakes out of him. If their offense isn’t playing at a high level, the Cowboys cannot depend on their defense—even against Joe Flacco and a lackluster Baltimore offense. Expect this one to be close—and be on the lookout for an upset.

Steelers -8 over BROWNS: Unless the Browns can pull off a major upset, they are not winning a game this year. Their remaining schedule consists of two games against the Steelers, a visit to Buffalo and home games against the Giants, Bengals and Chargers. If you can find a win in there, you’re a lot more creative than I am.

Dolphins -1.5 over RAMS: Quietly, the Dolphins sit at sixth place in DVOA. It looks like whichever two teams don’t win the AFC West between Oakland, Denver and Kansas City have the wild cards locked up, but if those teams cannibalize each other’s playoff chances, Miami can sneak in there.

Patriots -13 over 49ERS: We’re at the point in the season where it’s tenuous to write about why the 49ers are bad. Give credit to the coaching staff for keeping a few games close, like last week at Arizona or Week 4 against Dallas, but the quarterback matchup alone gives the Patriots an insurmountable edge in this game.

Eagles +6.5 over SEAHAWKS: Seattle is going to struggle against teams that can dominate the line of scrimmage. Cris Collinsworth destroyed Bill Simmons for this tweet, but Simmons' overall point was correct—the Seahawks look much better offensively against teams that can’t rush the passer. The Eagles—unlike New England—are a team that features numerous standout pass rushers. They rank second in adjusted sack rate while Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham both rank at the top-5 at their position by PFF grading (Graham ranks first among edge rushers). It won’t be easy for Philly to score either—facing Seattle on the road isn’t the best situation for Carson Wentz—but if they can play good defense then they should at least cover.

REDSKINS -2.5 over Packers: I don’t feel great about this game, but Green Bay’s only win since Week 5 was against the Bears. Things look a little better against the spread (they covered in Week 8 against Atlanta), but their defense is struggling and I have no faith in Mike McCarthy’s offense to win games on its own, despite the greatness of Aaron Rodgers.

Raiders -5.5 over Texans (N): Normally I’d be wary of picking Oakland against a good defense with a spread this big, but their offensive line played so well against the Broncos that any worries about Houston’s pass rush have been put to bed. It will be fun to see A.J. Bouye work against Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, but that may be the only matchup that falls in Houston’s favor on the defensive side of the ball[2]. As for the other side of the ball, Brock Osweiler is so bad that the Texans may not even be able to move the ball against one of the worst defensive units in the league.

 

Last Week: 9-5-0

Season: 81-63-3

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] He played just six games in 2010

[2] If Whitney Mercilus goes up against Austin Howard for most of the game, then that’s a second.

Week 10 Preview: Football is weird to think about right now, but it's a necessary distraction

If you’ve ever stopped to wonder why we as a collective population spend so much of our time, energy and wherewithal on stupid little games—watching men on a field hit each other, a ball or throw that ball through a hoop—today is your answer. Baseball—the oldest professional sporting institution in the country—was invented during the Civil War, acting as somewhat of a uniting factor between Union and Confederate soldiers, an escape from the horrors of the battlefield and the sharp divides of geography. Now, once again, sports will take up its role as an escape from reality.

As odd as it feels to write, or even to think about football right now, every second we spend on a matter as trivial as the Super Bowl is a second we spend on something other pessimism or disagreements. As stupid as it is to occupy our time rooting for logos, which mean nothing in reality, there is no time perhaps since 2001 during which that stupidity has been more necessary.

Let’s get on to the picks.

Week 10 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

RAVENS -10 over Browns: In this week’s edition of “Why are NFL ratings down?” the Cleveland Browns are on Thursday Night Football. As of this time, we are still wondering why NFL ratings are down.

Texans -1.5 over JAGUARS: Blake Bortles has melted down against worse defenses than Houston—he played like Jon Kitna against the Titans two weeks ago. If we are only counting unquestioned starters[1], Bortles may be the worst quarterback in football. The Jaguars cannot run the ball and they cannot play defense. They are nearing the point where it is irresponsible to pick them against most teams when the spread is less than 10 points.

Chiefs +3 over PANTHERS: There is a built-in bias against quarterbacks like Alex Smith that make the Chiefs a strong bet here. As uninspiring as their offense is, Kansas City can move the ball against a bad Panthers’ secondary. People are overreacting to Carolina’s last few games—remember that they can struggle in the trenches against teams like Kansas City and if their makeshift secondary does not hold up, it’s game over.

Broncos +2 over SAINTS: Not to be hyperbolic, but this line is flat-out wrong. Denver is a 2.5-point favorite on FiveThirtyEight and even that seems low. The Saints will not beat the Broncos in the trenches the way Oakland did last week, nor will a second straight bad defense play well against Denver. The public still has not caught on to the fact that Denver remains a Super Bowl contender and until it does, the Broncos are a strong bet every week.

JETS -2 over Rams:  There is no reason for either team to start the quarterback they plan to start in this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum have been completely awful and have tanked the playoff chances of their respective teams. The Jets may as well go with Bryce Petty and the Rams may as well go with Jared Goff, if for no other reason than to see if they can play. Also, I am changing my pick if either team makes that change.

Falcons over EAGLES (pick’em): With Wentz still hitting the rookie wall, it’s tough to see how the Eagles can win without stopping the best offense in the league by DVOA. As good as Philadelphia is defensively, they do not have anyone capable of covering Julio Jones. Unless they can pressure Matt Ryan with regularity—a tough ask against a strong Atlanta offensive line—the Eagles will fall victim to Atlanta for the second time in as many years.

REDSKINS -3 over Vikings: I’m going against my gut here, solely because I want to be sure that the Vikings are not collapsing before picking them in a game like this, where the line is suspiciously low and Minnesota is on the road.

Packers -2.5 over TITANS: The Titans currently rank 26^th in defensive DVOA and 27^th in pass defense DVOA. That is not a good formula for stopping Aaron Rodgers.

BUCCANEERS over Bears (pick’em): It is make-it-or-break-it time for Jameis Winston. The Bucs should be winning games like this with him at the helm without much trouble—the mere fact that this is a pick’em is a bad sign. However, Tampa should win this game. Winston is capable of throwing the ball against a team featuring De’Vante Bausby and Tracy Porter in the secondary and if Doug Martin returns, they can run the ball too. Whether or not their defense can hold up is another matter, but if they lose this, at home, then we have to begin to reevaluate Jameis Winston.

Dolphins +4 over CHARGERS: A small but notable portion of last night: San Diego’s stadium initiative failed to pass, meaning that, in all likelihood, they will move to Los Angeles. Whatever small home-field advantage they had before will evaporate as the team undertakes its death march toward the end of the season. That march starts this week.

CARDINALS -13.5 over 49ers: San Francisco is officially in Cleveland territory from a betting standpoint, meaning that it is not smart to put money on them unless the line is outrageous. This line is not outrageous given how badly Colin Kaepernick played in Arizona last year, not to mention how badly he played last week; therefore, it is not smart to put money on the 49ers.

Cowboys +2.5 over STEELERS: The Cowboys will score at will against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 19^th in DVOA. The quarterback question has been answered with Dallas ranking second in offensive DVOA and first in weighted offensive DVOA through nine weeks. And if you are about to tell me that the Steelers can play good run defense, you should know that by DVOA the Cowboys are significantly better at throwing the ball than running it. Normally, I would have qualms about their defense on the road in this type of game, but it looks like Pittsburgh rushed Ben Roethlisberger back a few weeks too soon. I plan on proceeding with caution until Roethlisberger looks like himself again.

PATRIOTS -7.5 over Seahawks: This line is too high, but I have said that twice about New England this year and both times, I was wrong. That was with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett playing quarterback—this time it’s with Tom Brady. The lesson from those first two times: Do not underestimate New England. No matter what.

Bengals +2 over GIANTS: Maybe I’m sticking with the Bengals a few weeks too long, but I still have not seen a good reason as to why they are struggling—thus continue to believe that they will turn it around. I do not trust Janoris Jenkins to cover A.J. Green in the slightest and the Giants will not get bailed out by bad coaching on the other side and untimely interceptions for the second week in a row. Even if the opposing quarterback is Andy Dalton.

 

Last Week: 5-7-1

Season:  72-58-3

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Which is to say, eliminating Cody Kessler and Colin Kaepernick.

Week 9 Preview: Coaches in Danger

We are roughly halfway through the NFL season and there has not been a single head coach fired. That is an upset in its own right, but if history is any indication, there are firings coming soon. This week, I decided to go over the most likely firings. Let’s get right to it.

Chuck Pagano: I picked Pagano before the season to be the first coach fired and I am standing by it, even as Gus Bradley implodes in Jacksonville. There were real expectations in Indianapolis, this year and last, and the Colts are languishing in third place in a division that may not feature a winning team this year. Injuries provided a valid excuse in 2015, but there are no such issues this year. Yet, the Colts are 3-5 heading into this week. Without a miracle win at Lambeau this week, I do not see how the Colts retain Pagano heading into their bye week.

Gus Bradley: There are no excuses left for Bradley, whose career record sits at 14-41 after four years—2016 being the first with expectations. Firing offensive coordinator Greg Olson may buy Bradley some time, but it’s not so much a matter of “if” but “when” Bradley is canned.

Mike McCoy: My assumption is that McCoy will be fired after the season once the Chargers begin to transition for their move to Los Angeles[1]. That would be a sensible time to make a coaching change, though if the Chargers think they can contend then I would advise a change now. McCoy is not an Andy Reid-type coach in close games—there is not one thing he is particularly bad at like clock management—but San Diego has constantly lost close games under him. Some of it—like botched snaps on field goals—does not stem from coaching, but there have been mistakes made leading up to those moments in droves. At a certain point, those mistakes pile up and a change must be made.

Jeff Fisher: Jeff Fisher will never be fired, but it does not change the fact that he is a horrific head coach. This has only been reinforced by the Rams standing by Case Keenum as if Jared Goff—the #1 overall pick in the draft that they traded a massive amount of draft capital in order to obtain—is JaMarcus Russell reincarnate.

Let’s get to the picks.

Week 9 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus odds are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Falcons -4 over BUCCANEERS: Without any of their top-3 running backs, Tampa Bay will have to depend on Jameis Winston to provide their offense this week. The problem is that Winston is mistake-prone; having thrown nine picks thus far, and is outside the top-20 in both DYAR and DVOA. The Bucs can win this in a shootout, but I do not trust their 22^nd-ranked offense in DVOA to keep it close.

CHIEFS -7.5 over Jaguars: I thought long and hard about picking Jacksonville here—it’s tempting with Nick Foles starting and serious trap game potential—but picking the Jaguars on the road is just stupid at this point. They may cover, but it is just irresponsible to pick Blake Bortles to cover on the road—even against Nick Foles.

Lions +6 over VIKINGS: The Vikings are in a free fall right now. I initially thought they could climb out of it this week—and they still may win—but Norv Turner resigning this morning is a big deal, even if Sam Bradford worked with Pat Shurmur in Philly. Detroit’s defense is awful, but their one area of competency is the pass rush—Kerry Hyder has come onto the scene this year with five sacks and both Ziggy Ansah and Haloti Ngata can be disruptive forces against a truly horrific Minnesota offensive line. In what should be a low-scoring game, the Lions can cover on the road.

Eagles +2.5 over GIANTS: Until the Giants’ offense really starts to click; they are not going to beat the best defensive team in the league by DVOA. New York has talent, but Eli Manning has struggled and Ben McAdoo’s system has been an unmitigated disaster this season. This is a must-win game for both teams, but the Eagles are simply a better team in every facet of the game.

Cowboys -7 over BROWNS: New England is not playing this week and I do not feel this pick needs much explanation, so I am going to use this space to talk about the Jamie Collins trade because I do not understand what the Patriots were thinking. I do not care if the Patriots were not going to resign him and I do not care if he was not playing quite as well as he normally does. Jamie Collins is a top-10 linebacker—arguably, a top-10 defensive player in general—and trading him makes the Patriots markedly worse on defense. For analysts who may or may not be friends with Bill Belichick (cough*Mike Lombardi*cough) to say Collins was playing badly and New England’s defense needed fixing is utterly ridiculous. He had a bad game against Buffalo and maybe he was freelancing—I do not know what plays Matt Patricia is calling—but acting like trading one of the best defensive players in the league “fixes” New England’s defense is flat-out stupid. The Patriots are top-10 in yardage and top-5 in points on defense. Those numbers paper over some issues, but the linebacker position is not one of them. Obviously, Bill Belichick is smarter than I am and knows what he is doing and the Patriots will probably win the Super Bowl regardless, but New England’s PR campaign against Collins is shameful.

DOLPHINS -3.5 over Jets: The Dolphins are 18^th in DVOA and playing at home after their two best wins in recent memory and a bye week. The Jets are 31^st in DVOA and playing on the road after they struggled to beat Cleveland. New York is also trotting out Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, someone whom the organization seems to have no faith in whatsoever (with good reason). If there is a reason to take the Jets this week, I have not found it.

Steelers +3 over RAVENS: According to reports today, it seems likely that Ben Roethlisberger will play this week in which case the Steelers should win outright and this line will probably move to a pick’em. If Roethlisberger does not play, I may change my pick but if this line is still three when this publishes, people should jump on it immediately.

49ERS +3.5 over Saints: New Orleans is coming off games in Kansas City and against Seattle. After this week, they play Denver and go to Carolina. This is a trap game and the Saints will fall victim.

Panthers -3 over RAMS: The Panthers are not a bad offensive team—they rank 14^th in offensive DVOA and Jonathan Stewart should play which means good things are to come. As long as Case Keenum is under center, the Rams are ill equipped to take advantage of Carolina’s secondary deficiencies. Without being able to throw the ball, it is tough to beat Carolina and the Rams cannot throw the ball.

PACKERS -7 over Colts: Aaron Rodgers had a 125.5 passer rating last week so I guess it turns out his career is not finished. With Green Bay’s offense back to normal—, which is to say that Rodgers is making up for all of Mike McCarthy’s flaws as a coach again—they will not have any trouble scoring against an awful Indy defense. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay can dominate at the line of scrimmage enough to prevent Andrew Luck from wreaking too much havoc—a formula good enough to cover.

Titans +5 over CHARGERS: This game intrigues me because I am still not sure what to make of the Titans. A win here would put them ½ games out in the AFC South and I think there is enough talent on the roster to win a bad division. Whether or not that talent can overcome Mike Mularkey’s coaching is another question, but this game could be an indicator. I do not know if they can win, but I think they keep it close against disaster-prone Chargers.

Broncos over RAIDERS (pick’em): The Raiders are going to struggle against good defenses and the Broncos’ unit is a hell of a lot better than good. Denver can move the ball against the Raiders’ defense—which ranks 28^th in DVOA—without much trouble and Oakland has penalty issues across the board. FiveThirtyEight has Denver as three-point favorite, an assessment that makes sense given that Denver is on the road.

Bills +7 over SEAHAWKS: Until Russell Wilson gets fully healthy; it is going to be tough for Seattle to manufacture offense. Their offensive line will not hold up well against a Bills team ranked second in adjusted sack rate and if Wilson is not able to create things out of the blue, the Seahawks will not be able to move the ball. They can still win in a low-scoring game, but the Bills should cover regardless.

 

Last Week: 6-7-0

Season: 67-51-2

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Yes, I am also assuming that San Diego votes not to fund the team’s stadium next week and the team moves.

Week 8 Preview: The fatal flaws of title contenders

The NFL is not in a good place right now. Last week was one of the worst weeks you can imagine when it comes to the standard of play. Matt Barkley played quarterback for the Bears on Thursday night. The Eagles and Vikings had a turnover-off, Case Keenum played like Case Keenum, Kevin Hogan became the sixth player to throw a pass for the Browns, Landry Jones started for the Steelers, Brock Osweiler threw for 131 yards and it felt like less. The Seahawks and Cardinals had a 6-6 tie in prime time!

This isn’t the Browns or 49ers being bad, this is everyone being bad. There’s no such thing as a perfect team, but we’ve never seen a situation where no team looks great or even very good, with the possible exception of New England. Everyone has a flaw that, in a normal year, may sink them come January. This week, I decided to look at what that flaw is for the best five teams in football by DVOA. Let’s jump right into it.

Philadelphia Eagles: Wide receiver, right tackle

As of right now, no Eagles receiver ranks above 61^st in DYAR and Jordan Matthews is the only one with over 200 receiving yards. With Lane Johnson suspended, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, whose name I think I spelled correctly, is the starting right tackle. This has already shown to be a problem as Vaitai has a 39.9 PFF grade and has been a major issue in pass protection. Both of these issues get worse when you consider that they have a rookie quarterback. As good as Carson Wentz has been, it’s a bad thing when your rookie quarterback is depended on to make his receivers better instead of the other way around and an even worse thing when said quarterback is facing pressure with regularity.

Seattle Seahawks: Offensive line

Four out of five Seattle starters on the offensive line are rated as “poor” by PFF grading. They’re 28^th in adjusted line yards and 13^th in adjusted sack rate. The latter number looks good before you realize that Russell Wilson is the best quarterback in the league when it comes to avoiding pressure. Seattle has survived with a bad offensive line before, but that was with Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls—two steamrollers in human form—at running back and a healthy Wilson under center. The Seahawks have neither of those luxuries this year, at least until Rawls returns from injury, and its showing. Their offense has lagged in recent weeks thanks to a slew of holding penalties and constant pressure. It’s bordering on disaster (though I’m sure some will tout Tom Cable, their offensive line coach, as a strong head coaching candidate once January comes around).

Denver Broncos: Quarterback

It has been well documented that I do not believe the Broncos have downgraded at quarterback by replacing Peyton Manning with Trevor Siemian. That being said, Siemian has a significantly lower margin for error. Denver won the Super Bowl last season by scooting by in close games, not by dominating their opponents, inferior or otherwise. No team can win that many close games for two years in a row and it’s already shown this year in the Broncos’ loss to San Diego. That makes the quarterback position an issue—even though Siemian has been fine thus far, Denver is still depending on defense to win games, an issue for most teams no matter how good their defense may be.

Minnesota Vikings: Offensive line

The Vikings came into the season with the worst starting tackles in football. Then, Matt Kalil got hurt, which meant T.J. Clemmings had to slide over to left tackle. To call Clemmings an unmitigated disaster would be the understatement of the century. He has a 26.9 PFF grade, the worst among qualified players at tackle by nearly ten points. Jeremiah Sirles has been better at right tackle, but only default as his 56.9 PFF grade looks good in comparison while Brandon Fusco and Alex Boone have been underwhelming on the interior. All in all, Minnesota is dead last in adjusted line yards and stuff rate, rendering their run game useless at best.

Dallas Cowboys: Pass rush

Dallas ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA and the issue mostly stems from an inability to get pressure. Tyrone Crawford, Maliek Collins and Jack Crawford—three of the team’s four starting defensive linemen—have PFF grades below 44. While players such as David Irving—who forced three fumbles and had a sack in Week 6 against Green Bay—have picked up the load, the Cowboys don’t have anyone who can be a disruptor on a regular basis. Without being able to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, things can, and will, get a lot tougher defensively.

Week 8 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Jaguars +3.5 over TITANS: Laying points with Mike Mularkey is one of the dumbest things you can do. I did it last week and lost—I will not do it again, even against Blake Bortles and Gus Bradley. This game being on prime time is a travesty, but not as much as the fact that this game somehow has playoff implications. The AFC South is flaming garbage personified and the reward for winning it will be a loss worse than the 30-0 defeat Houston suffered last year in January.

Bengals -3 over Redskins (N): The Bengals are under .500, but their losses are against Pittsburgh, Denver, Dallas and New England—four potential Super Bowl contenders. Against Washington—a team that is decidedly not a Super Bowl contender—Cincinnati will be just fine. They can throw the ball against a thin Redskins secondary and I don’t buy Washington’s run game being as good as it has been the past few weeks. The Bengals can, and will, get back on the playoff track with a win in London[1]

Lions +2.5 over TEXANS: Brock Osweiler is currently 32^nd in DYAR and DVOA. Out of 32. And yes, that includes Cody Kessler. If you include players who don’t qualify, Osweiler is still dead last in DYAR, ranking behind the likes of Matt Barkley and Kevin Hogan. If there’s anyone who will fail to take advantage of the worst defense in the league by DVOA, it’s him and if there’s anyone who shouldn’t be favored at home against a remotely competent team, it’s also him.

Seahawks -2.5 over SAINTS: This line is an overreaction to the 6-6 monstrosity the Seahawks engaged in last week. Their offense is clearly an issue with Russell Wilson playing hurt, but they can still score against the Saints—who rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA. FiveThirtyEight has Seattle as six-point favorites, a far cry from the 2.5 you can get in Vegas, so jump on this while you can.

Patriots -6.5 over BILLS: Outside of the first game against the Bills—in which Jacoby Brissett played quarterback—the Patriots may not lose straight-up or against the spread all year. I won’t be picking against them until one or both of those things happen.

Jets -3.5 over BROWNS: If Cody Kessler plays, I may change my pick, but right now it looks like Kevin Hogan will play quarterback for the Browns which means that you can bet against Kevin Hogan and lay less than a touchdown. For the sake of clarity, I’ll repeat that: you can bet against Kevin Hogan and lay less than a touchdown.

Raiders +1 over BUCCANEERS: I don’t know if this is a West Coast team playing on the East Coast or what, but this is the second week in a row that the Raiders have been underdogs against a team that is decidedly worse. If that is a result of Oakland having to travel, I will point out that the Raiders have played four games that started at 10:05 PT and won all of them. Why they are still underdogs in this game, after winning four in a row on the road, I have no idea.

Chiefs -2.5 over COLTS: Indy’s offensive line was good for stretches last week and we got to see what this offense would look like if Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano weren’t completely incompetent. Unfortunately, Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano are completely incompetent and the Chiefs have a solid defense, even without Justin Houston. The Colts just aren’t going to move the ball well against a defense ranked 12^th in DVOA and the Chiefs are going to run the ball against a 32^nd ranked run defense by DVOA. They can also throw the ball against an incompetent secondary—particularly given that Indy is 32^nd in DVOA against tight ends. This will be a big game for Travis Kelce and a potential blowout win for Kansas City. 

PANTHERS -3 over Cardinals: The Cardinals have a history of underperforming in games they should win—particularly those on the East Coast. I don’t love this line, but Carolina is better than their record and I’m not sure Carson Palmer can take advantage of the holes in their secondary.

BRONCOS -5.5 over Chargers: The Chargers’ offensive line is 28^th in adjusted sack rate and 26^th in adjusted line yards. Denver got back on track Monday night and their offense looked good against a solid Houston defense. I’m willing to accept their previous loss against San Diego as a result of Paxton Lynch and take them this week in a game they should win.

FALCONS -3 over Packers: The Falcons can score against any defense in the league. Unless Matt Ryan reverts to last year’s form, there are no holes in this unit. The only question is their defense, which I’m not worried about against a badly designed Green Bay offense.

COWBOYS -4.5 over Eagles: Carson Wentz is hitting the rookie wall after his worst game (by far) last week, which consisted of two interceptions and a 52.4 passer rating—over 25 points lower any other game[2]. If Dak Prescott hits the same wall, I don’t think it will have the same effect on the Cowboys’ offense because they rely so much on running the ball. My only hesitation with this game is that there’s a real chance for a backdoor cover, but that’s a chance worth taking given that Dallas is a flatly better football team.

Vikings -5.5 over BEARS: We need to either kill Monday Night Football as an entity or start giving it better games because the Bears being in prime time (again) is flat-out unacceptable.

 

Last Week: 10-5-0

Season: 61-44-2

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] How big of an upset is it that between Chuck Pagano, Gus Bradley and Jeff Fisher, none were fired this season after a London game? The odds on that had to be at least 100/1.

[2] His previous low was two weeks ago against Washington.

Last-minute NBA prop bets

The NBA season always seems to creep up on you. With the NFL in full-swing and MLB postseason happening, it’s easy to forget that basketball is going to be back in [checks watch] three hours. The League Pass alerts, Spursgasms, Stephen Curry heat checks, Russell Westbrook drives and DeMarcus Cousins dirty looks toward teammates are just three hours away from being in our lives again. If you’re looking for some last minute gambling tips, here is your guide.

All odds are from Bovada unless otherwise noted.

Charlotte Hornets to win Southeast Division (+350)

Charlotte Hornets over 42.5 wins (-105)

Charlotte Hornets to make playoffs (-140)

These odds may not reflect it, but the Hornets are good. Last season, Charlotte won 48 games and finished in a three-way tie for first place in the Southeast[1] despite Michael Kidd-Gilchrist playing just seven games.

There are some concerns: Marvin Williams may not shoot 40.2 percent from 3 again, Courtney Lee and Jeremy Lin are gone, Nicolas Batum had a career-year and probably won’t match it—but this is still a playoff team by a fair margin. Steve Clifford is one of the most underrated coaches in the league, Kemba Walker is turning into a real crunch-time scorer and Batum is still a solid 3 and D player at his worst. Even if his 3-point percentage declines by five or six points, Marvin Williams is still a viable stretch four who can negate the damage Kidd-Gilchrist does to their spacing.

Additionally, the Southeast has gotten markedly worse. Unless Justise Winslow turns into a two-way All-Star, the Heat are out of the playoff picture. The Hawks effectively traded Al Horford for Dwight Howard—a move that helps their rebounding at the cost of their spacing, defense and chemistry. John Wall and Bradley Beal are at each other’s throats in Washington—a chemistry issue for a team that already has to deal with Markieff Morris—not to mention the fact that the Wizards are depending on a strategy that won them one playoff series two years ago. Frank Vogel’s Magic are intriguing, but they’re still at least a year away.

Chicago Bulls under 38.5 wins (+115)

Chicago Bulls not to make playoffs (Even)

The Bulls brought in Fred Hoiberg to run a pace-and-space system to better fit today’s NBA. One year later, they’re starting Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic and Robin Lopez—a five-man crew with a grand total of one 3-point shooter, assuming if you count Mirotic, who has shot 35.5 percent from beyond the arc in his career, as a 3-point shooter. The building of this roster makes absolutely no sense unless Gar Forman’s goal was to sell jerseys. You can already see the chemistry issues building as Wade, Butler and Rondo compete for touches, not to mention the latter’s incessant stat-padding and the potential conflicts with Hoiberg given the impossible task he has in front of him and the poor job he last season.

New York Knicks under 38.5 wins (+115)

Somehow, people haven’t come to grips with the fact that Derrick Rose is not a starting-caliber point guard. The evidence is in plain sight—Rose was 68^th among point guards in Real Plus-Minus last season, per ESPN.com. That’s lower than Joe Young, Tyler Ennis, Marcelo Huertas and Ray McCallum. Joakim Noah isn’t anywhere near the player he was in 2013-14 and that’s assuming he stays healthy. Carmelo Anthony will mail it in on the defensive end and, frankly, isn’t a good enough player on the offensive end to carry the load at age 32. Kristaps Porzingis is a great player, but he’s surrounded by older players who will demand touches.  As soon as the Knicks start losing, there will be conflict between Jeff Hornacek and Phil Jackson, giving the season that trademarked sense of hopelessness.

Denver Nuggets over 37 wins (-120)

This is based mostly on projection systems being smarter than me—FiveThirtyEight and Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE both have the Nuggets at 40 wins and I can see the upside. Nikola Jokic is as good a passer as a big man can be and on the cusp of becoming a legitimate star. If Denver doesn’t trade Danilo Gallinari, he’ll give them a go-to guy on the offensive end and Wilson Chandler is returning from injury. Kenneth Faried will either be a scorer off the bench or draw assets as trade-bait and Will Barton would have been a 6^th Man of the Year candidate had the team drawn more national attention. The Nuggets may not make the playoffs, but they can compete.

Memphis Grizzlies not to make playoffs (+150)

The bottom of the West is so cluttered that no team should have odds this high to miss the playoffs. On top of that, the Grizzlies have more injury risk than any of these teams and a lack of depth that will rear its head if Marc Gasol or Mike Conley goes down again. Zach Randolph is going to drop off one of these years, even if David Fizdale has him come off the bench, and FiveThirtyEight has Memphis at just 35 wins, well out of contention for the 8-seed. At +150, the odds are just too good to pass up.

Blake Griffin to win MVP (+3300)

MVP seems like the most interesting bet this year, but I’m surprised there haven’t been more arguments for Griffin. Let’s assume that Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are out of the running because no media member will want to vote for a Warrior. Let’s also assume that LeBron starts going the Tim Duncan route and plays between 60 and 65 games, taking himself out of contention for the award. Russell Westbrook is currently the odds-on favorite, but there are legitimate questions about his efficiency with the offense entirely in his hands. The counting stats will undoubtedly be great, but if his usage rate climbs above 35 percent, he may get treated like Kobe Bryant did in 2006 with a similarly loaded field. There’s also a chance Oklahoma City doesn’t make the playoffs, in which case there’s a pretty low chance the media votes for him. If the Pelicans don’t make it, they won’t vote for Anthony Davis either.

Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are both interesting, but Leonard lacks the offensive flash necessary to ever be heralded as the best in the league while Harden will get docked for his defense—especially given that the Rockets may be one of the worst defensive teams in the league even without him. As long as we’re not veering off into Karl-Anthony Towns’ territory, that leaves only a few viable options: Paul George (+2200), Kyrie Irving (+3300), Chris Paul (+3300), Damien Lillard (+3300) and Griffin.

George is intriguing—he could hypothetically carry Indiana to 50 wins—but the way Larry Bird has built that team reminds me too much of the Bulls. The Pacers may get to the playoffs, but they won’t be a juggernaut, nor will George carry them emphatically enough to grab attention. Even if LeBron James plays just 60 games, that’s still enough to take the credit out of Kyrie Irving’s hands and in Portland, Lillard’s defense is a few Vine-able plays away from Harden territory.

Chris Paul is 31—old enough to hand the offensive reigns to Griffin for the majority of the regular season. If Blake (and everyone else) can stay healthy, the Clippers are capable of winning 60 games. They’ve fallen off the radar, but don’t forget that they won 53 last year while being riddled with injuries. At his best, Griffin is a top-10 player—an offensive threat inside with ability to step out past the elbows that can switch on the defensive end and carry a team in crucial playoff games. If Doc Rivers takes the plunge and slides him over to the five for stretches, Griffin will look like Draymond Green with a better offensive game and the Clippers will become the darling of the media—which will strive to avoid making the Warriors the topic of discussion for an entire season.

Rudy Gay to be traded during the regular season (-175)

Gay essentially demanded a trade without explicitly demanding a trade and risking a fine. Even for the ever-incompetent Sacramento front office[2], it’s a no-brainer to get some sort of asset for Gay while they can. This is as close to a lock as anything can be.

Rick Carlisle to win Coach of the Year (+3500)[3]

I don’t have Dallas making the playoffs, but the West could be congested enough that they slip into the postseason on the backs of Dirk Nowitzki, Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews. As crazy as that sounds, it’s not much more insane than the Mavs winning 42 games last season when, before the season, it seemed likely they would tank to keep a top-7 protected pick dealt to Boston in the disastrous Rajon Rondo trade. Carlisle has won this award before, but it was in 2001-02—his rookie year as a head coach—when he took the Pistons to 50 wins and the #2 seed. It’s been too long since Carlisle was given some appreciation—the fact that he’s 35/1 for this award reflects that more than anything. Dallas is primed to beat expectations and if they do, Carlisle will be given the credit (rightly so).

All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] They were the six seed for the postseason due to tiebreakers as four different teams in the East finished 48-34 last season

[2] Vivek Ranadive saying that he didn't want to draft Nik Stauskas when there is video of him advocating for Stauskas in Sacramento’s draft room was my favorite part of the offseason.

[3] This bet is from Sportsbook.ag as Bovada does not offer odds on Coach of the Year